How Hits Happen
Forecasting Predictability in A Chaotic MarketplaceBook - 2000
Applies the science of complexity theory to modern business challenges, explaining how virtual-world consumer environments accurately emulate human behavior and how managers can apply an understanding of such simulations to real-world industry. Reprint.
How does a movie like titanic captivate the public eye and break box office records everywhere? Why is Tickle Me Elmo on every kid's Christmas list one year- and replaced by Ferbies the following year? Managers and marketing gurus have long struggled to predict why some new products are instant hits, and why others fail miserably. Now, in this groundbreaking study, Winslow Farrell applies the science of complexity theory to modern business problems. He reveals how actions of computer-generated "customers" that shop, go to movies, listen to music, and form cliques shed light on consumer behavoir in the natural world. Motivated by the same factors as humans-product placement, popularity, advertising, or simple preferneces-their purchases are a powerful indicator of what's a hit..or a flop. As he reveals the findings of this incredible technology, Farell offers valuable lessons to managers in any real-life industry, and revolutionary, near perfect business model for predicting the next big thing.